CHAPTER III

TRAFFIC SURVEY

301

Definition of Traffic Survey

302

Objects of Traffic Survey

304

Terms of Reference

305

Field Work

307

Methodology to be adopted in the assessment of traffic prospects and traffic forecasting

309

Estimate of gross earnings of a New line Project

310

Coaching earnings

316

Assessment of Goods Traffic and Earnings of a New Line Project

328

Marshalling yards

329 Assessment of Working Expenses
334

Line Capacity Works Analysis of Existing Capacity

337

Working out financial savings

340  Provision of rolling stock
342

Technique of financial appraisal of railway projects

344

Residual Value

345

Time span for appraisal

346

Project Viability

347

Traffic Survey Report

349

Documentation of data

350.

Covering Note

301. Definition of Traffic Survey.Traffic Survey is a detailed study of the traffic conditions of an area or Section with a view to assessing the traffic prospects and the financial implications of new line projects, restorations, other traffic facilities like gauge conversions schemes, doublings or major line capacity works.

302. Objects of the Traffic Survey.-The decision on any new projected Railway system or gauge conversion etc. can be arrived at only after the economic study of the project. Traffic Survey attempts to arrive at an assessment of the total traffic likely to be generated in the foreseeable future with special reference to the catchment area and the inter-model allocation of total streams of traffic between rail and road.

303. The earnings and working expenses should be computed for each year of the economic life of the project-which may be taken as 30 years-so that based on the annual cash flow and applying the DCF Technique, the project may be appraised to see whether it will yield the minimum acceptable rate of return of 10%.

304. Terms of Reference.-An experienced Administrative Officer of the Traffic (Commercial or Operating) Department should as a rule, be entrusted with the work of Traffic Survey. To ensure that the estimates of anticipated traffic, capital costs and recurring expenses etc. are realistic and the financial appraisal of the project including the phasing of investments and return at each stage are worked out as correctly as possible and with a great deal of objectivity, an Account Officer of appropriate status-Senior Scale or Administrative Grade-experienced in Traffic Costing should be associated with the Traffic Survey Officer from the inception and work in close association with the survey team. The Chief Engineer in charge of the Engineering survey of the project will also be in overall charge of the traffic survey of the project and the traffic survey report will be prepared under his general guidance in order to ensure that the most economic proposals are formulated. The traffic survey team should be supplied by the Railway Administration, with terms of reference containing instructions regarding the scope and nature of the investigations to be carried out. The traffic survey team should also visit the headquarters at various intervals both during the progress of the work in the field and during the period of recess in order to consult the General Manager and other principal Officers, and where necessary, have the original terms of reference modified by the competent authority. This is necessary in order that the Main line Administration may fully determine the design of the new line etc. under investigation.

305. Field Work.-The Traffic Survey team should also work in close collaboration with the Engineering Survey Party, if there is one in the field at the same time, and while collecting information should visit all trade centres in the area, consult local authorities and prominent citizens freely, both as regards trade and industry and the most suitable alignment for the proposed Railway line.

306. In the case of a New Line Project, the information to be collected by the traffic survey team should emanate from a study of the economic base of the area surveyed from the following angles :

  • (a) Human resources;

  • (b) Agricultural resources;

  • (c) Mineral resources;

  • (d) Industries located and projected;

  • (e) The pattern of trade and commerce;

  • (f) Existing transport facilities;

  • (g) Tourism and tourist prospects;

  • (h) Banking facilities;

  • (i) National Income; and

  • (j) Planning for economic development of the area by the local Government or by the Central Government.

However, while the forecast of traffic requirements given by other departments or Government Organisations may be kept in view, the team should make its own assessment based on such information which should be capable of being verified independently, regarding the setting up of specific industries and consequent growth of traffic requirements for movement of raw materials to and finished products from such industries. The survey team must probe deep into the various stages of scheduling of the project e. g. what commitments have been entered into by the Project authorities and whether the progress in execution of the Project is adequate to justify any specific claim in respect of anticipated traffic.

307. Methodology to be adopted in the assessment of traffic prospects and traffic forecasting-The traffic survey team should adopt the following methods, as appropriate to each component of traffic in making assessment of Potential traffic prospects :

  • (a) The conventional method of actual census of particulars of goods and passengers using the existing means of communication;

  • (b) Statistical methods of forecasting based on regression analysis especially in respect of traffic relating to the major commodities in the area and its correlation with specific economic activities; and

  • (c) Building up models based on such observations and data and applying sensitivity tests to ensure that the models adopted give a reliable forecast.

308. The following further guidelines should be observed by the traffic survey team in estimating the earnings :

(i) earnings should be assessed for each commodity and for the lead from its origin or source upto the point of termination of the traffic. In assessing the additional earnings, credit should be taken only for that portion of traffic which would not have been carried by the Railways but for the construction of the new line, etc. Further only the additional traffic beyond the optimum existing capacity should be reckoned for financial appraisal.

(ii) When part of the lead is over the contiguous Railway system, it should be ensured that the other Railway does not take credit for the same traffic to justify some other works. For this purpose, a proper co-ordination among the concerned Railways will be necessary. It should at the same time, be ensured that in case line capacity works or terminals or other facilities are to be undertaken in the contiguous section/Railway system, the project estimate should include the cost of such additional line capacity works and other facilities required to move the traffic anticipated to be generated from time to time during the life of the project. It has to be ensured that extraneous works not connected with the objectives of the scheme are not included. Where another Zonal Railway system is involved, that Railway may be c consulted in defining the scope and cost of such works. In case it is considered that adequate line capacity exists in the contiguous section or Railways system so that the additional traffic on the new line can be carried throughout its lead on the Railway without any hindrance, the Railway should certify that no additional works would be required to be undertaken anywhere on the system to carry this traffic. Where some other Zonal Railways are involved, the certificate to be given should be in consultation with those Railways.

(iii) In cases where one or more of the various works included in the group justification for a project are self-contained, selection of priorities after consideration of various alternatives should be done with a view to sub-optimisation, i. e., to realise the optimum benefit for the project by substituting less remunerative works by those expected to yield a higher return.

309. Estimates of Gross Earnings of a New Line Project.--The estimates of coaching and goods earning should be made separately and the results obtained compared with the statistics of existing similar lines. For this purpose the comparison should be made of.

  • (a) Earnings per kilometre per week; and

  • (b) Earnings per train kilometre. The estimate for earnings should be based not only on the standard rates and fares, but also on the assumption that the freight rates and fares over the line be raised by one and a half, two or three times the standard distance rates and fares, in the cases where the return is not found to be remunerative and a recommendation made regarding the extent of inflation which the traffic can bear.

310. For estimating coaching earnings, assessment should first be made of the passenger traffic handled by the existing modes of traffic. This can be done by taking a sample count of the existing passenger traffic moving between different points on the section and on the contiguous existing rail sections. This count can be taken over two spells of 3 days each, as far as possible, one each during the peak and the slack season, should give a break up of the number of passengers moving by various public transport like buses and taxis as also by private means.

311. Deleted.

312. The following statistics to the section should be obtained :

The population of the area (to be served by the new line) in the following details :

  • (1) Population of the market towns through which the line passes;

  • (2) Population of the area served by the section excluding the population of the market towns;

  • (3) The desnsity per square kilometre of the population;

  • (4) The composition of the population by age groups;

  • (5) The growth rate of the population;

  • (6) Details of melas, fairs, festivals etc. regularly held and the number of people travelling to and attending these;

  • (7) Characteristics of movement of labour force inside the area as well as to and from outside the area.

Based on this data an assessment of the following should be made :

  • (1) The number of local journeys per head of market town population and the average earnings per each such journey;

  • (2) The number of local journeys per head of the rest of the population served and the average earnings per each such journeys;

  • (3) The number of journeys per head of market town population to and from stations outside the section (the inter-changed traffic);

  • (4) The number of journeys per head of the rest of the population to and from the stations outside the section (the inter-changed traffic);

Note :-In this context "Local" means between two stations on the section and "inter-changed" means between stations on the section on the one hand and stations outside the section on the other.

This data should be compared with similar data for a section of the existing line of approximately the same length as the proposed line and passing through a comparable tract of land. After allowing for any differences in the section selected for comparison and the section to be built, separate estimates should be arrived at of;

  • (1) Local passenger traffic in terms of number of passengers and earnings, from market town stations;

  • (2) Local passenger traffic in terms of number of passengers and earnings, from other stations;

  • (3) Inter-changed passenger traffic in terms of number of passengers and earnings, from market town stations; and

  • (4) Inter-changed passenger traffic in terms of number of passengers and earnings from other stations.

By adding1 & 2, 3 & 4 separately, the number of passengers and the earnings from `Local Traffic' and `Inter-changed Traffic' should be arrived at. Inter-changed traffic should be doubled to allow for the inward traffic.

313. By a judicious combination of the data obtained from the sample count and the details regarding the characteristics of population and making use of the comparative rate structure of the existing modes of transport vis-a-vis that of the Railways, attempt should be made to arrive at the likely number of journeys of the both on account of local movement as well as interchanged movement. This information can be further supplemented and corroborated by taking an opinion poll at the existing terminal rail head of the project section, regarding the number of passengers originating on the Railway which have travelled to or from the various locations on the proposed new line section. Based on this, separate estimates should be arrived at of-

  • (1) Local passenger traffic in terms of number of passengers and earnings, from market town station;

  • (2) Local passenger traffic in terms of number of passengers and earnings, from other stations;

  • (3) Inter-changed passenger traffic in terms of number of passengers and earnings, from market own stations; and

  • (4) Interchanged passenger traffic in terms of number of passengers and earnings, from other stations.

Note :-In the context "Local" means between two stations on the section and "Inter-changed" means between stations on the section on the one hand and stations outside the section on the other.

By adding 1 & 2, and 3 & 4 separately, the number of passengers and the earning from "Local Traffic" and "Inter-changed Traffic" should be arrived at. Inter changed traffic should be doubled to allow for the inward traffic.

313. A. The above data can be compared by taking similar information for a section of the existing line approximately the same length as the proposed line and passing through a comparable tract of land. This comparison can further be used to apportion the total anticipated passenger traffic between Second Class and Upper Classes. The data from the comparable section can also be used for estimating the earnings from other coaching traffic as a percentage of passenger earnings.

314. To the earnings thus arrived at a correction should also be made as necessary, based on the industrial development expected in the area and also a suitable addition of passenger traffic and earnings from the periodical melas, fair and festivals etc., in respect of which it should generally be possible to arrive at a fairly accurate figure of pilgrims and other similar traffic.

315. The estimates of inter changed traffic will then have to be split up into those attributable to the project and those for the existing lines. This is necessary for the purpose of arriving at net earnings in as much as the working expenses on the project will differ from those to be incurred for the carriage of additional traffic on the existing lines.

For this purpose the average load of inter-changed passenger traffic of the section chosen for comparison should at first be determined, cross checked with the leads calculated for the new section on the basis of the sample physical counts and then applied to the new section and beyond that section. The earning from inter-changed traffic, as estimated according to para 312 above should be divided in the ratio of the leads to arrive at separate figures of earnings of the project and those of the existing lines, making due allowance for any special features.

In ascertaining the additional traffic to the existing lines, allowance has to be made for that part of the estimated inter-changed traffic which will already be moving over the existing lines.

Assessment of Goods Traffic and Earning of a New Line Project

316. The estimates of goods traffic should be made separately for outward and inward traffic. It should also be assessed for each commodity and for the lead from its origin or source upto the point of termination of the traffic even beyond the section under construction.

317. For the purpose of the assessment of goods traffic the information collected in terms of para 306 should be studied carefully in order to select the important agricultural commodities, cash crops and products of mining etc. which are peculiar to the area. Similarly, the important industries which are likely to have a substantial transport requirement should also be identified. Other commodities which are of minor importance to the area could be grouped together under the head General Goods.

318. Apart from the commodity-wise assessment of traffic, the goods traffic that will be secured by new line may be grouped into (a) short distance; and (b) long distance traffic. Before crediting the line with any anticipated short distance traffic, the pattern and conditions of trade and commerce should be examined to ascertain whether the Railway will be used as a means of transport in preference to road for this purpose. Over a short lead, the door-to-door convenience of road transport added to the other advantages, frequently out-weighs any small financial saving offered by rail transport. The position of established markets has an important bearing on this matter. If there is a market on the proposed line, it is likely to develop and attract part of the exportable surplus of the area, in which case this produce will become long distance traffic and proposed line would get the benefit of the lead involved.

The volume of short distance and long distance traffic should be carefully calculated from the observations and enquiries made on the spot and it should be possible to determine the quantum as well as the probable lead of such traffic. The assessment should consider the aspect that in the case of traffic which in any case will have to move by rail for the available rail lead only the extra lead provided by rail by the construction of the proposed line should be taken into accounts.

319. The statistics which will be of value in arriving at the anticipated outward traffic will be :-

  • (a) The total acrage under cultivation ;

  • (b) The normal yield per Hectare ;

  • (c) The normal exportable surplus in the area to be served ;

  • (d) Particulars of industries already located in the area ;

  • (e) Industries projected in the furture to go into full production by the time the line is ready for opening for traffic and the future growth anticipated.

The possibility of development and the likelihood of an increased area being put under cultivation with the provision of better transport facilities should also be taken note of. In the case of industries the outward movement of the traffic in finished products of the industries should be ascertained by making suitable local enquiries. The traffic likely to arise on tapping of mineral and forest resources, if any, in the area as also likely to develop on the implementation of multi-purpose projects under various schemes of the Government's Plans should also be duly taken into account.

320. Goods Earning from Inward Traffic.-For estimating the inward goods traffic the average import of food stuff per head of population and the average weight of other imports such as raw-material, machinery, agricultural implements, clothing etc. will have to be ascertained. The imports of coal and other raw-materials for the factories, mills or other industries to be set up or already in operation should be computed by enquiries in the appropriate quarters.

321. In assessing the goods traffic that will be available for movement by rail, the utilisation of existing transport system such as, road, river steamers, pipelines etc. should be carefully studied and a judicious estimate of the diversion to rail made, taking into consideration the comparative freight charges by different modes, due allowance being made for the possibility of any new inward traffic also being carried by the other alternative means of transport. Information regarding the existence of various road transport, network of road in the area and the percentange of their utilisation should be given. The team could also request/suggest any improvement in the road facilities by way of feeder roads etc. to reach the rail heads projected on the new lines.

322. The figures of inward goods traffic on an existing similar section of the line should also be studied and compared with those worked out for the proposed line.

323. The estimates of goods traffic thus made should be cross-checked by the application of statistical techniques such as regression analysis of economic activity in relation to the movement of commodities in the area, choosing those commodities which are likely to move in bulk or have a definite relation to a specific economic activity e. g., building construction activity.

324. In reckoning the financial prospects of a proposed new line, credit should be taken on the net revenue derived from all traffic brought on to the existing lines as a direct result of the construction of the breach after making suitable allowance for the traffic which is already moving through the existing rail head or which in any case would move by rail from the already available rail head. It is necessary, therefore, to estimate all such traffic separately; and for this purpose the destination of all probable export should be ascertained so as to determine the lead of this traffic both in the proposed new line as well as over the main system.

325. After the assessment of coaching and goods traffic has been made the next step should be to determine the number of trains (passenger and goods) the loads, the directions and pattern of movement (origin and destination of important traffic flows) the type of equipment to be used and the facilities for marshalling and terminals required etc.

326. The following statistical indices of performance will then be compiled :-

Existing line Project line
Existing traffic Additional traffic Existing traffic Additional traffic

Freight traffic-

  • (a) Tonnage loaded under specific commodities.

  • (b) Tonnage unloaded under specific commodities.

  • (c) Tonnage transshipped

  • (d) Tonnage repacked

  • (e) Tonnage of cross traffic

  • (f) Lead of specific traffic

  • (g) Net tonne kilometres

  • (h) Loaded wagon kms.

  • (i) Empty wagon kms.

  • (j) Tare tonne kilometres

  • (k) Gross tonne kilometres

  • (l) Engine kilometres

  • (m) Train kilometres

  • (n) No. and name of marshalling yards.

  • (o) No. and name of Repacking points

  • (p) No. and name of Transshipment points

Coaching / passenger traffic-

  • (a) No. of passengers

  • (i) Originating

  • (ii) Incoming

  • (b) Train kilometres

  • (c) Engine kilometres

  • (d) Vehicle kilometres

In case any difficulty is experienced in converting the tonnes into wagons the figures of average starting loads (separately for originating and transhipped traffic) shown in the monthly wagon loading statements of the existing line may be adopted. Otherwise the minimum weight condition as per good tariff may be taken into account.

327. Empty haulage should be carefully calculated taking into account the outward and inward traffic commodity-wise and equipment-wise. The source of empties should also be indicated so that the empty haulage may be reasonably assessed. Otherwise, the following norms may be adopted :-

BFRs. Oil tanks. BOBs. BOI and Special types, etc. (BG & MG) 100%
POL, Traffic, iron ore traffic, industrial raw material to steel plants, etc. (BG & MG). 100%
Coal-Average B. G.  80%
Other commodities-BG 25%
MG (including coal) 30%

 The correct estimate of empty haulage is very essential, as this element appears in the calculation of-

  • (i) wagon kilometres

  • (ii) gross tonne kilometres

  • (iii) engine kilometres

  • (iv) train kilometres

  • (v) wagon days. and

  • (vi) engine days, and

  • (vii) number of marshalling yards.

328. Marshalling Yards.-The survey report should specify the inward, outward and cross traffic dealt with at different marshalling yards on the projected line and the existing main line. This should be separately assessed for the existing traffic and additional traffic. The loaded journeys as well as the empty journeys of wagons should be taken into account. In case the pattern of traffic is such that it by-passes the marshalling yard detention to stock for carriage and wagons trains examination for engine changing or crew changing should also be taken into account.

329. Assessment of Working Expenses-In relation to any capital expenditure proposal, the working expenses will consist of :-

  • (a) the average annual cost of operation

  • (b) the average annual cost of maintenance and

  • (c) the annual depreciation charges.

330. The working expenses should be assessed by making full use of the traffic costing data relevant to investment proposal under consideration. Correct application of the cost data and in particular, assessment of the direct variable and indirect/fixed or semi-variable cost is very important in arriving at a realistic estimate of the working expenses. For new line construction, restorations working expenses should be estimated in detail under the various heads of the prescribed classification of revenue working expenses and should be cross-checked with relevant cost data. In case of wide variations between the costs worked out by the above mentioned two modes, the reasons therefore should be explained given also adequate justification for using either of the cost data in the financial analysis.

331. In applying the unit cost data for working out the cost of moving the additional anticipated traffic, it has to be considered whether it would be reasonable to adopt the incremental cost approach, or to take fully distributed cost into account, Logically, it would be realistic to work on the basis of incremental cost for any small increase in traffic and over the short run. In the long run, however, even the so called fixed cost will vary and the incremental or marginal cost may fail to cover such semi-variable expenses. On the other hand, it would be equally unreasonable to apply fully distributed cost in all cases while working out the financial implications of a line capacity work. A realistic (though some what conservative) approach would, therefore, be to adopt long term variable costs which will ensure not only that projects are not thrown out because of adoption of the fully distributed cost but also that a project is considered as remunerative if it meets the long term variable cost.

332. Working expenses should be computed separately as direct costs, comprising of terminal cost for documentation, other terminal cost, transhipment cost if involved, marshalling cost, cost for maintenance of carrying units, line haul cost-traction, line haul cost-other transportation expenses and line haul cost-track and signalling. To these direct cost must be added overhead charges (Railway) and overhead charges (Central) wherever required. An escalation factor may also be added to bring the cost up-to-date.

333. In calculating line haul traction costs, the nature of movement should be taken into account, i. e. whether the traffic is carried by shunting and van trains or by through trains. The cost characteristics are different and relevant unit costs should be adopted. If the type of traction of the line haul is not defined or specifically known then all traction figures are adopted. Unit cost data by identifying the type of traction is more refined and, therefore, by taking note of special characteristics of operation the cost may be estimated with higher degree of accuracy.

333-A. While compiling data on the existing modes of transport, efforts should also be made to ascertain the cost of operation of these modes for both passenger and goods traffic. This information should consist of the details regarding the types of vehicles moving on the existing means of transport, their capital cost and average operating expenditure. In the case of road vehicles, which is the main alternative transport, the physical performance characteristics like average load per trip, average length of haul and the average vehicle kms. per day in addition to the detention time at the loading and unloading points should be collected. This information should facilitate a national level comparison of costs between the rail and road modes for carrying anticipated volumes of traffic. This information should be utilised to find out whether the commercial viability of a rail project is corroborated by a comparison between the cost to economy at market prices of the available means of transport.

Line Capacity Works

334. Analysis of existing capacity.-Proposals for new marshalling yards or major yard modelling of the existing marshalling yards, goods terminals and transit yards etc. should be preceded by work study. The existing capacity should be properly evaluated by preparation of master charts for doubleings, multiple tracking schemes and gauge conversion schemes. In the case of passenger terminals occupation charts of the platform lines, washing and stabling lines etc. should be prepared and analysed. In the case of goods yards and marshalling yards etc. the capacity should be worked out in terms of average detentions of trains etc.

335. The optimum capacity with the existing facilities should first be worked out. Thereafter, based on the projections of traffic, the gap in the availability of capacity and likely requirement should be identified and alternative solutions to create requisite capacity in phased manner should be considered. For instance, on a single line section, the possibility of improving capacity by having improved speeds, heavier/longer trains, change of traction, provision of additional crossing stations, token less block working, etc. should be explored and if the gap cannot be abridged, the alternatives of patch doubling in suitable phases or introduction of CTC should be considered. Likewise in the case of gauge conversion schemes, which are capital intensive, entailing a longer lead time, the possibility of improving the capacity on metre gauge system itself, if necessary, by doubling of critical patches should also be considered, coupled with steps to improve transhipment by mechanisation (pallatisation, containerisation) etc. This is particularly relevant in respect of truck routes which are connected with a large number of branch lines with the result while transhipment on conversion at the terminals may be eliminated, creation of smaller transhipment points enroute to serve the branch lines may not necessarily result in size able reduction in the overall transhipment load. Before considering provision of third/quadruple lines, the alternative of improved signalling arrangements like automatic signalling, absolute permissive block working etc. should also be examined.

336. In regard to yard remodellings the objectives of the remodelling of any yard can be one or the other or a combination of the following:

  • (i) Removal of certain constraints/bottleneck in the functioning of the yard for handling the existing level of traffic.

  • (ii) Handling increased traffic to and across the yard.

  • (iii) Undertaking long distance marshalling to either relieve the burden on intervening yard or to avoid investments in intervening yards and at the same time speeding up the movement.

While formulating proposals for remodelling of marshalling yards, the following guidelines should be kept in view :

As regards item (i), it may be difficult to quantify benefits in financial terms of removal of such constraints, particularly when the same also depends on changes in pattern of traffic, etc. In such cases, it would be reasonable to take up such works, which by their very nature are likely to be very minor, as operating improvements chargeable to Development Fund/OLWR as the case may be. In this category will fall works which would assist in efficient handling of local traffic/cross traffic, etc. which would also improve fluidity of the yard, such as provision for certain cross overs, extension of shunting neck or of classification/reception and despatch lines and provision of waiting bay lines etc.

As regards item (ii) mentioned above, for this purpose it would not be correct to treat individual yards for financial evaluation on the basis of saving in detention. For handling additional traffic, apart from inputs in marshalling yards, certain investments on line capacity may also be necessary. In such cases it would be desirable to form a group justification of viable sections between two marshalling yards or engine runs on a particular route falling on the same zonal railway or more than one railway. On the cost side, all the works required in the yard as well as on increasing line capacity/transhipment capacity on such portions (including on other Railways) should be taken and on the benefit side, the additional earnings from such traffic for the entire lead including that on the other Railways should be taken into account. The guidelines given in para 308 will be equally applicable here. Further, if any worthwhile saving in detention for existing traffic is anticipated because of the improved facilities, there is no objection to credit being taken therefore. But here also credit should be taken only for the net saving in detentions over the entire section between two marshalling yards, on engine runs or a particular route, as the case may be.

As regards item (iii), the objective of long distance marshalling is to speed up movement by skipping intermediate yards. If this is related to movement of additional traffic it would be covered by item No. (ii) above. On the other hand, for the existing level of traffic, there may be increase in detention in the marshalling yard which undertakes long distance marshalling while there would be saving in detention in respect of such traffic in the intervening marshalling yards although certain residual traffic in the latter may suffer increased detention on account of poorer materialisation thereof. In such a case, an overall view of saving as well as increased detention in all the yards in the project section should be taken into account and credit should be taken only for the net saving in detentions.

337. Working out financial savings.-For assessing financial savings from the avoidance or reduction of detention to rolling stock the quantum of detention should be assessed by sample survey during two to three months of each of busy and slack seasons of traffic. The financial benefit will usually consist of the savings in operation cost only. No credit should be taken for interest and depreciation saved unless the detention works out to whole unit (not fraction of the locomotive or wagon saved).

338. In working out financial evaluation, only additional traffic beyond the optimum extising capacity should be reckoned. In case of line capacity works, apart from taking credit for additional earnings, wherever creation of additional line capacity results in speedier movement and consequent savings in detention or lower working expenses, the credit therefor can also be taken. For instance, when double line working is introduced on a single line section, apart from enabling higher volume of traffic, the speeds of the trains, utilisation of rolling stock etc. also improves and such savings can also be evaluated in addition to taking credit for earnings.

339. The technique involving the application of "queueing theory" can be adopted with a advantage to arrive at optimum solutions to reduce detentions. The queueing or bottleneck problem arises when the service rate of a facility falls short of the flow rate of arrival pattern of the customers or units requiring to be serviced. The classic examples of queue formation in railway working are booking offices, marshalling yards, carriage and wagon depots etc. The obvious remedy to resolve delays on account of queueing is to provide more servicing units or to improve the service time. Alternatively the regulation of arrival patterns of units requiring servicing can also be examined. The exact quantification of additional, facilities requires the application of queueing theory models.

340. Provision of rolling stock.-In all cases of line capacity works as well as new line constructions which are justified on the basis of carrying additional traffic, the initial investment should be inclusive of the cost of rolling stock for which provision should be made on the basis of tonnage to be carried, the loadability, the lead of the traffic, empty haulage and wagon turn round etc. The financial return should be measured with reference to the overall initial cost of the work including cost of the rolling stock.

341. Working capital should also be included in the cost of the scheme.

342. Technique of financial appraisal of railway projects.-The technique of Discounted Cash Flow Method is adopted for working out the financial appraisal of railway projects. For details of working out the financial appraisal reference may be made to Chapter II of Indian Railway Financial Code.

343. Under D. C. F. technique of financial appraisal, the cash flow by definition should take into account only the realistic earnings and cash expenditure or in the case of expenditure reducing projects the net reduction in expenditure. Purely, accounting adjustments such as depreciation and other provision are to be completely ignored. The discounting rate of interest which is applied to the cash flows during the life of the project after it is commissioned will also apply to the investments made in the earlier years to bring it up-to-date as the year of commissioning.

344. Residual value.--Each project will have an estimated life span at the end of which various assets will be disposed of or put to other uses. At the end of this life of the project, an estimate should be made of the flow of funds that will be credited by the sale or disposal of the assets so that appropriate credit can be given to the project in the year in which the flow of funds occurs by the sale or disposal of assets. Since the assets may not all be discarded or sold at the same time, the cash flows resulting from residual values should be allocated to the year in which they are likely to be received. If some of the assets are to be taken out of service and disposed of before the termination of the project, this must be recognised at the appropriate time.

345. Time span for appraisal.-For financial appraisal useful life of the asset should be taken as 30 years.

346. Project viability.-A railway project should be accepted as financially remunerative only if it gives a rate of not less than 10% by DCF technique.

347. Traffic Survey Report.-At the conclusion of the survey, a report should be formulated by the officer-in-charge of the survey. The format of report will be governed largely by the nature of the terms of reference and the investigations made. The following format of the report which may be treated as a general guideline-may be adopted :

  • (1) History of the proposal and terms of reference.

  • (2) General description.

  • (3) Potentials and prospects.

  • (4) Industrial and economic development and traffic projections.

  • (5) Population projection and volume of passenger traffic.

  • (6) Existing rates and rates to be charged.

  • (7) Location of route or routes examined, alternate routes and possible extensions.

  • (8) Station sites, and their importance.

  • (9) Train services necessary section capacity and various alternatives to increase capacity.

  • (10) Coaching earnings.

  • (11) Goods earnings.

  • (12) Working expenses and net receipts.

  • (13) Engineering features.

  • (14) Tele-communication facilities.

  • (15) Financial appraisal.

  • (16) Conclusions and recommendations.

348. A clear index map showing all relevant information should accompany the report, in particular all towns and places referred to in the report should be clearly shown in the index map. The details of information collected, calculations and diagrams should be embodied in tables as annexures to the report.

349. Documentation of data.-The number and form of annexures to Report will vary according to the nature of investigation. The following list may be treated as a general guideline in this connection.

(1) Potential and prospects.

  • 1.1 Particulars of population (at various points in the catchment area), net production of various commodities (e. g. wheat, rice, other cereals, pulses, oil seeds, cotton etc.) total consumption and surplus or deficit for the base year under study.

  • 1.2 Particulars of cultivation at various locations in the catchment area (total acrage, forest uncultivated land, cereals, pulses, oil seeds, cotton etc.)

  • 1.3 Projected population (at various points in the area) commoditywise production, local requirements, surplus or deficit.

  • 1.4 Gross import and export potential (foodgrains, oil seeds, cotton, fertilizer, cement, general goods, etc.)

(2) Analysis of existing modes of transport-

  • 2.1 Comparison of rates with existing modes of conveyance.

(3) Time-table of proposed train services.

(4) Revenue projections-passenger

  • 4.1 Gross revenue projections-passenger traffic.

  • 4.2 Incremental revenue-passenger traffic (if applicable).

(5) Revenue projections-goods

  • 5.1 Gross revenue projections-goods.

  • 5.2 Incremental freight revenue (if applicable).

(6) Rolling stock

  • 6.1 Rolling stock requirements and investment in rolling stock-passenger traffic.

  • 6.2 Rolling stock requirements and investment in rolling stock-wagons.

  • 6.3 Rolling stock requirements and investment in rolling stock-goods locomotives.

  • 6.4 Terminal value of rolling stock.

(7) Working expenses.

  • 7.1 Working expenses-passenger traffic.

  • 7.2 Unit costs adopted in financial evaluation.

  • 7.3 Number of wagons originating/terminating.

  • 7.4 Number of wagons dealt with in marshalling yards.

  • 7.5 Number of wagons transhipped (if applicable.)

(8) Capital investment.

  • 8.1 Proposed works-timing and capacity generated.

  • 8.2 Capital cost of investments.

  • 8.3 Investment schedule.

  • 8.4 Capital expenditure according to life of assets.

  • 8.5 Terminal value of assets.

(9) Financial appraisal

  • 9.1 Rate of return work sheet.

350. Covering note.-The traffic survey report and annexures should be submitted to the Railway Board under a covering note which should have the authority of the Railway Administration submitting the report. It should provide a summing up and should contain clear recommendation together with the views of Financial Adviser and Chief Accounts Officer.

351. A synopsis of the salient features of the project should be provided in the report. The following data may be treated as a guideline in this connection :

  • 1. Length of the line

  • 2. Number of stations.

  • 3. Area coveredstate-wise and district-wise.

  • 4. Principal items of goods traffic.

  • 5. Quantum of goods traffic year-wise projections in tonnes.

  • 6. Coaching traffic year-wise projection of passengers with break up of local and interchange figures.

  • 7. Number of trains.

  • 8. Gross earnings per year.

  • (a) Goods

  • (b) Coaching

  • 9. Working expenses.

  • 10. Net earnings.

  • 11. Financial result.

  • 12. Cost of the project.

  • (a) Civil Engineering.

  • (b) Signal and Tele-communication.

  • (c) Electrical.

  • (d) Rolling Stock.

  • (e) Working capital.

  • 13. Investment schedule.

  • 14. Ruling gradient adopted.

  • 15. Standard of construction.

  • 16. Maximum degree of curvature.

  • 17. Speed potential of the line.

  • 18. Cost per Kilometre.

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